The National Weather Service Office in Brownsville, Texas, has recently implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in Deep South Texas. This new service allows the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks, offering valuable information for residents and authorities in the region.
The AHPS utilizes historical climatological and stream flow data spanning 50 years to calculate probabilities of the creek rising above specific stage levels in the next 90 days. By considering current conditions of the creek and soil moisture, the AHPS can provide a comprehensive range of probabilistic numbers, aiding in assessing the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions.
For example, the Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet, with a 50 percent chance that the forecast point will rise above 2.3 feet during the next 90 days. These probabilistic outlooks are crucial for preparedness and response efforts in the face of potential flooding events.
The long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month, providing regular updates to stakeholders in the region. This information is available online, allowing easy access for residents, emergency management agencies, and other interested parties.
In light of the implementation of the AHPS for the Los Olmos Creek basin, residents and authorities in Deep South Texas can now benefit from enhanced forecasting capabilities, enabling them to make informed decisions and take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of potential flooding events.
As climate change continues to influence weather patterns and intensify extreme weather events, the importance of advanced forecasting tools like the AHPS cannot be overstated. By leveraging technology and historical data, the National Weather Service is at the forefront of providing valuable information to protect lives and property in vulnerable regions.
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References:
1. https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.97813ed16349c1ec89d6a010271bfede35f3b5f3.001.1.cap
2. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro
3. https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1fdfcfa504735c2491f0a572b3fb423445264d5f.001.1.cap
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